In the first two issues of the CCP, I made the case that we are not in fact doomed when it comes to the ongoing climate crisis.
Even so, as the recent IPCC climate report makes abundantly, painfully clear, the climate crisis requires us to act urgently and decisively to draw down greenhouse gas emissions.
Fortunately, the solutions that will pull the brakes on this carbon train are the same solutions that could make our lives better in so many ways. Think stronger economies, cleaner air, cleaner water, less income inequality, healthier natural systems, the disruption of long-standing systems of oppression — all of these things, and more, could and should be outcomes of a clean energy transition.
There’s still plenty of disagreement about the best ways to execute these solutions so that the transition causes as little harm and creates as many benefits as possible, but the right tools exist.
So what do we need to do to wield those tools urgently and decisively?
The trillion-dollar answer is (drum roll). . .
political will.
The Levers of Power
It’s our government leaders, the world over, who have the power to make large-scale changes and to ensure the clean energy transition happens quickly. They hold the political and economic levers which can rapidly phase out fossil fuels, incentivize the implementation of solutions, and ensure that everyone has the opportunity to reap the benefits of the transition.
As usual on the CCP, I’m painting in broad strokes here — there are many ingredients that go into the political will pizza recipe, including education, community engagement, leadership in the private sector, community leadership, civic participation, and more. But I want to focus on what I believe is at the foundation of all of it — the crust on this delicious transformation pizza. And that’s public pressure.
(And if you ever want to dig past the broad strokes and talk nuts and bolts with me about any aspect of the climate crisis and its solutions, please leave a comment! I love talking about this stuff with fellow parents.)
In the simplest of terms, the only way enough of the world’s governments are going to do what it takes — break free of the status quo and stand up to fossil fuel corporations — is if they feel overwhelming pressure from the people.
Let me say that again and be as clear as the freshly warmed water pouring off a glacier: the only way we’re going to get our children out of this mess is if we put overwhelming pressure on our leaders to use their political power for good and not evil.
If you’re not too much younger than I am, you likely remember how the widespread acceptance of gay marriage once seemed unimaginable. And if you’re not too much younger than my parents, you might remember a time when the status quo fought desperately to preserve segregation. While the climate crisis will require a much greater degree of societal change, the history of successful social movements does provide grounds for optimism.
Even on the issue of climate, we’re already seeing in some places how public pressure can get results. In the EU, for example, a sweeping European Green Deal was passed in the wake of the unprecedented Youth Climate Movement demonstrations of 2018 and 2019.
It’s happening in numerous smaller but still impactful ways as well — take Sweden, where a rise in “flight shaming” has led to a decrease in air travel. (Fun side note: With air travel, as with solar panels and electric vehicles, a certain contagion effect has been observed — a phenomenon where the adoption of certain climate-friendly practices like installing solar panels or buying an electric vehicle increases the odds that your neighbors will follow suit.)
In the words of the wise Bill McKibben:
“That’s what activists play for at this level: a change in the zeitgeist. A change in what people perceive as normal, natural, or obvious. And when it happens, the consequences can be immediate and breathtaking.”
Social Tipping Points
Research published last year reinforced the idea that widespread societal climate action can be driven by a critical mass of public support, and need not happen in a steady, linear fashion (and thank goodness, because we’re out of time for that anyway). From some of the authors of that study:
“Fossil fuel use and emissions are at record highs because business-as-usual and conventional policy processes have proven inadequate to slow climate change. Achieving a rapid global decarbonisation to stabilise the climate depends on activating processes of social and technological change within the next few years.”
They uncovered a number of social tipping points, wherein certain smaller changes within the system can trigger cascading transformations that get us on the right path (changes like the removal of fossil fuel subsidies or updated building codes).
They looked at what it would take to trigger these tipping points, and virtually all of the instigating conditions are a version of popular support, or a version of political will that would still require popular support (at least in a democracy).
So that brings us back to the question. . .
How Many People Does It Take to Save The World?
How many of us need to step up and call for action to reach the critical mass required for overwhelming political pressure?
Almost Definitely: Less Than Half
When it comes to sorting out how many of us are required to create a massive social shift, you may have heard certain climate organizations put the number at precisely 3.5% — this is an oft-cited figure that comes from the brilliant nonviolent resistance researcher Dr. Erica Chenoweth.
But Dr. Chenoweth’s research was based on a very specific type of movement (overthrowing a government), and her 3.5% figure counted the percentage of the population which showed up, in person, at nonviolent mass protests during peak participation.*
Other researchers took different approaches to the question and pointed to 10% as the magic number, while yet others came to the conclusion that 25% is definitely it.
While all this research confirms that social tipping points likely don’t require a true majority before the gravity of change kicks in, I wanted to look for a more pertinent, real-world example.
Popular Support for Urgent Climate Action in Countries with Climate-Friendly Policies
Several studies have shown that there’s a connection between public support for environmental action and the subsequent passage of environmental policies. (Note that many other variables, including the lobbying power of energy companies, also show up in the research as important factors.)
One of the most recent studies was a systemic, quantitative study of public opinion and environmental policies across a large set of countries in Europe. It found that as public opinion shifts, so does government policy. From the abstract:
“We show that as public opinion shifts towards prioritizing the environment, there is a significant and positive effect on the rate of renewable energy policy outputs by governments in Europe.”
Countries' average change in environmental public policy mood, 1974−2015
Total number of domestic energy policies, 2015
Again, from the researchers themselves:
“We found that shifts in public opinion in the direction of pro-environmentalism significantly and substantively increase the adoption of renewable energy policies in Europe between 1974 and 2015. Thus, public opinion is not only relevant to the passage of renewable energy policies in the US, but also in Europe.”
It Takes a Whole Bunch of People + You
The lesson here is that we need political will if we’re going to save the future, and we need public pressure if we’re going to influence political will. And if just a fraction of us stand up and speak out, that could well be enough to transform the world.
So please — if you have a minute this week, send a quick message to your Congress members asking them to go big on climate in the Build Back Better plan.
Your voice matters.
(And don’t forget to share the link around — remember that contagion effect!)
TL:DR
Your voice —> public support for climate action —> political will for consequential legislation —> the changes we need to avert the worst possible versions of the future.
Thanks everyone — and talk to you next time.
Warmly,
Jessica
PS: Despite all the constant chatter about policies and metric tons of CO2 and parts-per-million, the real consequences of the climate crisis are felt by real people living real lives. Some of those people spent Sunday in Louisiana waiting on the roofs of their homes with their children, or trying to avoid catching COVID-19 in a crowded evacuation shelter, or trying to keep patients alive in a hospital running on back-up generators. As these individuals and their communities work together on Hurricane Ida recovery and cope with the ongoing power outage, please remember the human cost of the climate crisis and consider donating to help.
Hopey Changey News
Renewables are on top in the UK! A report has shown that 2020 marked the first year when the UK generated more electricity from renewable sources than from fossil fuel sources. Wind power alone provided 24.1% of the UK’s electricity last year – that’s up 18% from 2019.
Wind energy is also sweeping through the US, where a record 42% of new power last year came from wind energy installation.
Meanwhile, Pakistan is undergoing a massive drive to plant 10 billion trees (yay for the world’s best carbon capture technology: the tree!), and researchers in South Korea have developed a critical technique for recycling discarded solar panels into high-performance solar cells, which, y’all, is just plain genius.
*Despite my quick dismissal of this figure, I do want to point out that the very first Earth Day protests back in 1970 attracted an estimated 20 million Americans, or a full 9.8% of the US population at the time — and those protests led directly to the subsequent passage of this country’s bedrock environmental laws, the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act. This fact does give me hope that Americans, and legislators, can show up for their planet and their future.